中国政府放权之路并非坦途（中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司（www.sinosenior.com）整理发布  2015-11-06

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com）2015年11月6日了解到：中国政府最近推出了两个具有高度象征意义的政策变化。两个都标志着其退出民众生活的重要领域：他们的卧室和他们的银行账户。占据了所有新闻头条的是第一个政策变化，即结束“一孩政策”，但很有可能预示着更为重要变化的是看似不起眼的第二个变化，即取消银行存款利率上限。Beijing cannot control babies or banks   China’s Communist party has made two recent, highly symbolic policy changes. Both signal a retreat from important areas of people’s lives: their bedrooms and their bank accounts. It was the first, the end of the one-child policy, that stole all the headlines. But it is the second, the seemingly obscure removal of a cap on bank deposit rates, that could plausibly auger more significant change.

The scrapping of the one-child policy after three brutal decades is indeed an important milestone. The policy, introduced in 1979, was the most graphic illustration of the Communist party’s instinct to control. It was also the most hated. The millions of state officials charged with enforcing it — through fines, sterilisations and even forced abortions — are among the most despised. As recently as 2012, online photographs posted by the relatives of a woman made to abort a seven-month-old foetus provoked outrage. The effects on society have been equally grotesque. Because of a preference for boys, sex-selective abortions have resulted in one of the world’s most skewed sex ratios. At its worst, in 2008, there were 120 boys born in China for every 100 girls. “一孩政策”在实施了30年、造成种种不人道后被废除，这确是一个重要里程碑。这项出台于1979年的政策最为生动地展示了中共的控制本能。它也最遭人痛恨。负责该政策实施（通过罚款、绝育甚至强制堕胎等手段）的数百万计生工作人员极度遭人鄙视。就在2012年，一名怀有7个月身孕的孕妇被强制引产的照片被其亲戚传到网上，引发了人们的极大愤慨。“一孩政策”对社会的影响同样荒诞。想要男孩而导致的选择性堕胎导致中国成为全球性别比例最失调的国家之一。在性别比例失调最严重的2008年，中国新生儿的男女性别比例是1.2比1。

From a human rights standpoint, then, ending the policy is unmistakably good. But as a practical measure it may have limited effect. It is not even clear how dramatic an impact it had in the first place. The biggest drop in China’s fertility rate (births per woman) occurred in the decade before the policy was introduced. From 1970 to 1979, it halved from 5.8 to 2.8. Since then, it has fallen to well below the 2.1 needed to keep a population stable. That may owe more to growing affluence and urbanisation than to the policy itself. 因此，从人权的角度来看，结束“一孩政策”显然是件好事。但作为一项实际的举措，它可能效果有限。现在甚至还不清楚，它归根到底产生了多大影响。中国生育率（每名女性生育的孩子数量）最大幅度的下降发生在该政策出台前的十年间。从1970年到1979年，中国生育率从5.8下降至2.8。自那以后，生育率就降至远低于2.1（人口替代率）的水平。这可能更多的要归因于中国人日渐富裕和城市化水平日益提高，而不是“一孩政策”本身。

Even if the fertility rate could be raised overnight, the effects would not be seen for decades. China is already 即便可以一夜间提高生育率，其效果也要等几十年才能看到。中国已经是地球上老龄化速度最快的社会之一。到2030年，中国社会的年龄结构将与日本相同，后者的经济按名义价值计算20年没有增长。联合国的数据显示，今后15年，中国的工作年龄人口将缩减10%。

one of the fastest-ageing societies on earth. By 2030, it will have the same 把人们从农地赶到工厂流水线上就能轻松实现增长的时代已经过去了。中国要想实现其成为一个富裕国家的目标，就需要创新。中国还应该致力于在2030年底前实现目标。在那之后人口结构将变得非常不利。

age profile as Japan, whose economy 那么另一个变化呢？取消银行存款利率上限是放开国内利率的最新举措。许多年来，中国存款利率被人为压低。这使得政府能够以人为压低的贷款利率，将中国庞大的家庭储蓄利用起来、投向受扶持的行业。在中国，此类“金融抑制”与“一孩政策”有可比性。两者都是为了国家利益牺牲个人利益。

has not grown in nominal terms for 20 years. Over the next 15 years, China’s working-age population will shrink 正如“一孩政策”早就适得其反一样，中共控制经济的本能很可能破坏其寻求的再平衡。中国现在需要更好地配置资本。它需要减少投向重工业的资金，增加对服务业和创新行业的投资——其中许多行业不在政府的掌控内。它还需要让更大比例的收入留在人们的口袋中，从而让他们能够增加消费。

by 10 per cent, according to the UN. 结束金融抑制是向正确方向迈出的重要一步——如果该政策能长久的话。这是在两年前中共十八届三中全会之后出台的诸多措施之一。三中全会出台了设想让市场起“决定性作用”的文件，其中的措施包括减少对国有企业的补贴，更重视消费并减少政府干预。

The years when it could achieve easy growth by shifting people from farm to assembly line are over. If China is to reach its goal of becoming a wealthy country, it will need to innovate. It should also aim to get there by 2030. After that the demographic headwinds will be intense. 进展一直断断续续。在股市开始暴跌以及汇率机制改革造成混乱之际，那种旧式的干预本能出现了。最新的五年规划（这一概念显然带有前苏联意味）最关注的是让产能到2020年比2010年翻一番。这意味着，在本10年剩下的时间里，经济增速要达到6.5%。如果增速放缓，政府可能会采取措施鼓励经济旧领域发展，这些领域恰恰是真正放开的银行业体系不愿触及或将对其收取较高贷款利率的行业。最近改革的走走停停表明，中国政府内部一部分人希望放弃经济规划，还有一部分人不愿放手。“一孩政策”在计划实施年限过了很久之后仍继续存在，肯定也是因为同样的紧张关系。

What then of the other change? The lifting of the cap on deposit rates is the latest step in deregulating domestic interest rates. For many years, deposit rates have been kept artificially low. This allowed the state to recycle high household savings into favoured industries via artificially low lending rates. In China, such “financial suppression” found a parallel in the one-child policy. In both, the interests of the individual were sacrificed to those of the state. 然而中国共产党只需要望向台湾海峡对岸，就可以看出控制的局限性。在人们可以自由决定生育几个孩子的台湾，生育率正好为1.0。在实行“一孩政策”的大陆，生育率为1.6。正如瑞典学者汉斯?罗斯林(Hans Rosling)所言，“卧室里有比共产党更强大的力量”。市场因素也是同样，这就是它们为何如此可怕的原因。

Just as the one-child policy long ago became counter-productive, so the party’s instincts to control the economy risk hampering the very rebalancing that it seeks. China now needs a better allocation of capital. It needs less money to be pushed into heavy industry, and more into services and innovative industries, many of them outside state control. It also needs a greater share of income to stay in people’s pockets so they can spend more.

Ending financial repression is an important step in the right direction — if it lasts. It is one of a plethora of measures laid out after the Communist party’s Third Plenum two years ago. That document, which envisaged a “decisive role” for markets, included fewer subsidies to state-owned enterprises, more emphasis on consumption, and less state intervention.

Progress has been choppy. When

the stock market started plummeting and when a change in exchange-rate regime caused havoc, the old instincts to intervene kicked in. The latest five-year plan, a concept with decidedly Soviet overtone, puts most emphasis on doubling 2010 output by 2020. That implies growth of 6.5 per cent for the rest of the decade. If the pace slackens, the temptation may be to pump prime the old parts of the economy, precisely the industries that a truly liberalised banking system would shun or penalise with higher lending rates. The stop-start nature of recent reform suggests there are elements of the state that want to retreat from economic planning and elements that are loath to let go. The same tension must have kept the one-child policy in place long after its sell-by date.

Yet the Communist party only needs to look across the Taiwan Strait to see the limits of control. In Taiwan, where people are free to have as many babies as they wish, the fertility rate is precisely 1.0. In “one-child” China it is 1.6. As Hans Rosling, a Swedish academic, says, “there are forces in the bedroom that are stronger than the Communist party”. That applies equally to market forces — which is why they are so scary.

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