社会将受到气候变化的影响（中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司（www.sinosenior.com）整理发布  2015-11-17

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com）2015年11月17日了解到：一位杰出的经济学家发出警告，人类社会将很快开始经历人为气候变化的不利影响。Human societies will soon start to experience adverse effects from manmade climate change, a prominent economist has warned.
　　Prof Richard Tol predicts the downsides of warming will outweigh the advantages with a global warming of 1.1C - which has nearly been reached already.
　　Richard Tol教授，预测气候变暖的负面影响将大于其优点，现已基本达到1.1C。
　　Prof Tol is regarded by many campaigners as a climate "sceptic".He has previously highlighted the positive effects of CO2 in fertilising crops and forests. His work is widely cited by climate contrarians.
　　Prof Tol 教授被许多活动人士视为“气候怀疑论者”。他曾在农作物和森林施肥时，强调了二氧化碳的积极影响。他的作品被气候反对者广泛引用。
　　"Most people would argue that slight warming is probably beneficial for human welfare on net, if you measure it in dollars, but more pronounced warming is probably a net negative," Prof Tol told the BBC Radio 4 series Changing Climate.Asked whether societies were at the point where the benefits start to be outweighed by consequences, he replied: "Yes. In academic circles, this is actually an uncontroversial finding."But it is controversial for climate contrarians, who often cite Professor Tol’s work to suggest that we shouldn’t worry about warming.
　　Prof Tol 告诉英国广播公司4电台气候变化系列：“大多数人认为：按净计算的话，轻微的变暖对人类福利可能是有益的。但如果你用美元测量它，更明显的变暖可能是负面 的。”当被问到：是否社会正处于影响开始超过利益的处境。他回答说：“是的。在学术界，这实际上是一个没有争议的发现。”但对于气候反对者来说这是有争议 的。他们经常引用教授Tol的作品来表明，我们不应该担心气候变暖。
　　Managing ecosystems
　　管理生态系统
　　Matt Ridley, the influential Conservative science writer, said he believed the world would probably benefit from a temperature rise of up to 2C."I think we probably will see 1.5 degrees of warming. The point is most people think 2C is when it turns catastrophic. That’s not right. The literature is very clear; 2C is when we start to get harm. Up until then we get benefit," he said.
　　Matt Ridley, 一位有影响力的保守派科学作家，他认为世界可能会从一个温度升高到2C中获得好处。他说，“我想我们大概会看到1.5度的气候变暖。问题是大多数人认为 2C是转向灾难性的。那不是正确的。文学是很明确的；2C是当我们开始受到伤害之时。而那之前我们已得到了好处。
　　"We’ve got a greening in all ecosystems as a result of CO2. We’ve got about 11% more green vegetation on the planet than 30 years ago, much of which is down to the CO2 fertilisation effect."On fertilisation Matt Ridley refers to unpublished work by Professor Ranga Myneni from Boston University.
　　因为二氧化碳的作用，我们所有的生态系统得到了一个绿化，和30年前相比，我们在地球上已经有约11%以上的绿色植被，大部分是因为CO2施肥效应。”在施肥方面，Matt Ridley 参考了来自波士顿大学 Ranga Myneni 教授未出版的作品。
　　But he told BBC News Lord Ridley had accurately quoted his research on the impacts of current CO2 levels, but was unduly complacent about future warming. "I am worried about how this work is being interpreted, by Lord Ridley. In my opinion, [CO2 fertilisation] benefit of greening is not worth the price of all the negative changes," he said.
　　但是他告诉BBC News，Lord Ridley 曾准确地引用了他对当前的二氧化碳水平影响的研究。关于未来全球变暖问题却是过于自满。“我担心这项工作如何被Lord Ridley解释。在我看来，[ CO2施肥]绿化的效益不值所有负面变化的价格”他说。
　　Richard Tol from Sussex University believes discussion over the impacts of a 2C temperature rise is largely irrelevant as the world is likely to warm by between 3-5C, because politicians at the forthcoming Paris climate summit won’t be willing or able to make the scale of cuts needed to keep temperature rises under 2C.
　　来自苏塞克斯大学的Richard 认为，关于2摄氏度的温度上升的影响的讨论很大程度上是无关紧要。因为世界温暖度可能介于3-5C，因为在即将举行的巴黎气候峰会的政治家们不愿意也不能够削减规模，使温度升高保持在2C。
　　He says a rise of 4C would be undesirable but manageable for Europe and all nations rich enough to cope with the costs of adaptation. The best way of combating climate change, he told BBC News, was to maximise economic growth.
　　他说，一个4C的上升将不可取但易于欧洲和各国管理以应付适应成本。他告诉英国广播公司新闻，应对气候变化的最佳途径是经济增长最大化。
　　Warming feedback
　　全球变暖反馈
　　Tim Lenton, professor of Earth systems science from Exeter University, told us this was a highly optimistic prognosis under a 4C rise."The land surface of central Europe would be quite a lot more than 4C warmer on average, changing potentially the pattern of seasonality over Europe.
　　Tim Lenton，来自埃克塞特大学地球系统科学学院的教授，告诉我们这是一个4C上升下高度乐观的预测。“欧洲中部的土地表面温度平均大部分超过4C，应改变欧洲季节性的潜在模式。
　　"We would have lost the summer Arctic sea-ice, [and] would have sea-ice cover radically thinned in winters. "We’re seeing already that appears to have some connection to changes in the pattern of weather and weather extremes and the changes in the distribution of rivers and river flows."We might then speculate about how intense Mediterranean drying might drive... movements of people. It would be a very different Europe."
　　“我们将失去北极海冰的夏天，在冬季，将有海冰覆盖并被彻底消薄。“我们已经看到，在天气和极端气候模式的变化以及河流和河流的分布变化中，似乎存在一些联系。“我们也许可以推测，地中海强烈的干燥会驱使人民运动。这将是一个非常不同的欧洲。”
　　Johan Rockstrom, director of the Resilience Centre at Stockholm University, warns that the further we go above 2C, the more we risk triggering irreversible effects."What takes us to 6C is not carbon emissions, it is biosphere response. Will we be able to maintain the natural carbon sinks in the permafrost, in the rainforests, in the boreal forests, in the wetlands and in the coastal regions? Because that’s where the big stores are.
　　Johan Rockstrom, 斯德哥尔摩大学复原中心主任，警告说，我们越超过2C，我们更可能引发不可逆转的影响。“使温度达到6C的不是碳排放，而是生物圈的反应。为什么我们能够 保持天然碳汇在冻土中，在热带雨林，在北方的森林，在湿地和沿海地区？因为那是大仓库所在的地方。
　　"We emit nine gigatons of carbon per year from our burning of fossil fuels, but there’s a 100 gigatons lying just under the Siberia tundra. You have many-fold larger stores of carbon in the topsoil of tropical soils, or under the ice in the Arctic. "If we don’t manage the living ecosystems well enough they could start biting us from behind."Society ’to be hit by climate change’
　　“我们每年排放九亿吨的碳，它们来自化石燃料的燃烧，但有100亿吨的碳在西伯利亚的苔原。在热带土壤的表层土壤中，或在北极的冰层下，你有很多储存碳的大仓库。“如果我们不能管理好生态系统，那么之后他们就开始伤害我们”。“社会”将受到气候变化的影响。 来源:BBC

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