10月会议纪要显示美联储或在12月加息（中英双语）

青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司（www.sinosenior.com）整理发布  2015-11-19

青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com）2015年11月19日了解到：上个月美联储(Fed)会议的会议纪要显示，多数委员认为，假如经济数据持续改善、没有“意外冲击”的阻碍，在12月加息可能是合适的。Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month showed that most members thought it might be appropriate to lift rates in December provided economic data continued to improve and that “unanticipated shocks” did not get in the way.

Most members of the US central bank’s rate-setting body said at their October meeting that conditions for an increase in short-term interest rates “could well be met” by December, as the central bank prepares for the possibility for the first upward move since 2006. 美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的多数委员在10月的会议上表示，到12月，提高短期利率的条件“可能被满足”。美联储正在为进行2006年以来首次加息的可能性做准备。

However, the minutes also exposed continued divisions among Fed policymakers, with some warning that it was “unlikely” that information available by December would support an increase. They questioned whether the US economy was strong enough to withstand a sudden setback given the Fed’s limited monetary firepower at a time of ultra-low rates. 不过，会议纪要也暴露出美联储政策制定者之间的持续分歧，部分委员警告，到12月可获取的信息“不太可能”支持加息。他们质疑，由于在超低利率时期美联储的货币政策弹药十分有限，美国经济是否足够强劲，可以禁受住突然的挫折。

October’s meeting was a pivotal one in which the Fed left rates at near-zero levels but put global markets on notice that a rate increase was a serious possibility at its final meeting of the year. 10月的会议十分关键，美联储在会议上决定让利率保持在接近零的水平，但向全球市场提出警告，在今年的最后一次会议上加息的可能性非常大。

In a manoeuvre aimed at priming markets, its October statement flagged up the potential for a move on December 16 as it dropped previous warnings of financial and economic dangers lurking overseas. Discussing that language in the October meeting, rate-setters insisted that it should still be seen as leaving the Fed’s policy options open. 一个旨在让市场做好准备的举动是，其10月的声明去掉了以前对海外潜藏的金融和经济风险的警告，凸显在12月16日加息的可能。在谈到10月会议的此种措辞时，委员们坚称，仍应让其显得美联储的政策选择是开放的。

There are concerns that US companies have borrowed too aggressively in recent years to buy rivals or their own shares, and corporate debt has come under pressure as the Fed has moved closer to interest rate lift-off. US corporate bond issuance has already smashed past last year’s record and is close to surpassing $1tn for the year as a whole, according to Dealogic. 有人担忧，美国企业近年来为了收购竞争对手或者回购自己的股票而举债过多，随着美联储接近加息，企业负债开始承压。根据Dealogic的数据，美国公司债券发行量已经打破了去年的纪录，全年接近突破1万亿美元。

Simmering concerns persist that a rate rise will rattle some investors who remain doubtful of the resolve of policymakers, potentially revealing faultlines in capital markets. 一些充满抱怨的担忧坚持认为，加息将惹恼一些投资者，他们对政策制定者的决心仍心存疑虑，这可能暴露出资本市场的裂痕。

Nonetheless, few analysts or fund managers foresee any severe ructions as the result of a solitary interest rate increase, pointing out that US interest rates will remain exceptionally low for a long time, with some even arguing that bond yields could even dip further and stock markets rally once investors realise that a Fed rate rise need not spell disaster. “It would reduce uncertainty and the markets hate uncertainty,” said Alain Bokobza, a senior strategist at Société Générale.

不过，很少有分析师或基金经理预测一次单独的加息会导致严重的不满，他们指出，美国的利率将长时期保持在极低水平，一些人甚至认为，一旦投资者认识到美联储加息未必意味着灾难，债券收益率甚至可能进一步下降，股市也会反弹。“加息会降低不确定性，而市场憎恶不确定性，” 法国兴业银行(Société Générale)高级策略师阿兰?博科布萨(Alain Bokobza)表示。

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